Snap Counts By Rookie?

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Fletch59
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Joined: January 16th, 2015, 9:20 am

Snap Counts By Rookie?

Wanted to look at the draft class and what impact they could make in snaps. Let's start quickly with last year's rookies and how much they played. ImagePercentages per player are of the season; cumulatively, obviously, that's per one player's snaps.   The 2023 rookie class chipped in 231% of snaps on offense, a very paltry 35% on defense, and 1.3 players' worth on special teams. That leads us more reasonably into expectations of what will happen on this year's squad.  Everyone would love a rookie to be on the field every snap, but the Mingo situation above shows that's not ideal at times either.  Mingo was 2nd most on the field, 2nd most targets, and zero TDs.  Nobody wants that. Xavier Legette     Legette will probably play less than Jonathan Mingo did last year, but if he does, it won't be for nothing.  Carolina has two starting WR, Dionte Johnson and Adam Thielen, and if you project that Legette would be first off the bench fair enough, but he's starting completely over.    This year's squad wants to not have 3 WR be as much of a base (I would bet, though I did last year as well, on a more 50/50 split of 2 TE v/s 3 WR unless Dave Canales is dying to run the ball out of 3 WR).  Because of that, and because the team does have Mingo, I'll put him at about 50%.  Were it me, working backward, I would give Legette a lot of X snaps, I would have him not learn the slot or the Z, and so that puts Legette in 3 WR in medium down/distance and some 2 WR snaps.   To finish the thought process, I think Johnson and Thielen play about 80% each, and Mingo plays about 30%. You could Mingo him but I don't know that Legette gets a ton out of snaps for the sake of snaps.  Legette makes 80% of snaps if something goes wrong or he becomes a break-out star. Jonathon Brooks     I've got Brooks at about 40% right now, behind an incumbent.  If they dump Miles Sanders that should improve, but I don't know why they would, now that they've had him.  Chuba Hubbard would remain the top back, Sanders has to get carries (and there should be ample chance to rebound if the line is better), and Brooks' medicals have to have zero setbacks for more than 40%.  But he's the best receiving back, and that at minimum should get him on the field. Trevin Wallace    I see Wallace running down kicks, and getting 15% of defensive snaps unless something goes wrong.  By some points in the 2023 season, they were using two backup ILB, so you never know.  Wallace's strong 40 time puts him on cover units, and that's 40% of snaps.   Ideally, if he shows aptitude for coverage, you could throw him in on nickel, but right now, I don't see it in his tape.  Ja'Tavion Sanders    I know I'm high on him but Sanders is wide open to play a lot.  All signs I see, point to 150% snaps for TEs, and if you're running the ball well you stay at it.  If you're not behind, you stay at it.   I'd have to project that he plays more than Ian Thomas there, but I'm throwing 60% at him and suggesting he splits a lot of it with Tommy Tremble, and that Thomas subs from 3rd 30%. The other two play a lot of special teams, for what it's worth. Chau Smith-Wade    15% defense and 60% special teams for CSW.  I think he's either a core special teamer (as was Jammie Robinson last year, and should continue) or he doesn't make it. I think he does.  Jaden Crumedy     I'm taking a guess that he doesn't make the roster.  I don't guarantee it, but I"ll guess it.  Last year's 3 IDL spots were tumultuous, with a few different possible starting noses and two of the assumed top 4 in the group not making the 53 man roster.  Crumedy doesn't fit the most likely need - NT - and they have some 5Ts. Michael Barrett    You don't get to your 4th or 5th ILB if everything is good, that guy plays special teams only.  You also have to guess that he makes the roster, by far not guaranteed of a 7th rounder.   UDFA It gets hard to predict anyone else making the 53, or the active group, even though Carolina has a pretty big FA pool.  If, say, K Harrison Mevis or C Andrew Raym have played significant snaps, something has probably gone wrong.  Hand to God I saw a video suggesting there'd be a QB controversy between Bryce Young and Jack Plummer, which ...what? Shouldn't he make the team first? You couldn't find ten people from Plummer's alma mater that think he should beat Young.  Rage bait. Anyway, best case scenario, there's enough around that these guys aren't playing tons and tons of snaps. 

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