Now That the Smoke Has Cleared: A Look Ahead to Kansas City

[TheFish]

There’s a scene in the cult movie “Let It Ride” when Richard Dreyfus’s character has all his money bet on the final race of the day. Everything is on the line (after a very good day), and he has a moment of doubt. “What if I lose?” Then he composes himself, recounting the many great experiences of the day, saying, “You can’t put a price on a day like that…everything will be okay if I lose. But if I win, oh…if I WIN….”  Welcome to the Miami Dolphins wild-card playoff weekend.  There simply isn’t a need to have one more gasbag like I bloviate about last week’s disaster against the Bills. There’s plenty of pontification out there and plenty of blame to go around. Also, we’re not doing a retrospective of the Dolphins season yet because the season isn’t over, despite the popular line of thinking that it is. So, let’s just move on.  What to Expect from Kansas City:  You may or may not have heard this, but it’s going to be COLD. As someone who lived at the highest elevation of the Pocono Mountains for nearly two decades, I can tell you there are different kinds of cold. There are cold temperatures that you’re used to, like sub-freezing temperatures for a couple of weeks or months in a row with no thaw. When you live in regions like the Poconos, or Buffalo, or Kansas City, you get used to those temperatures. This Saturday evening is going to be different. We’ll get into that in a moment.  The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions, but this simply isn’t the same team as last year. Due to a combination of a new Offensive Coordinator, a banged-up Travis Kelce, and a wide receiver corps that we’ll kindly refer to as “unreliable,” their offense has actually struggled down the stretch more than Miami’s. They’re just 4½ point favorites, despite home-field advantage and a forecast that makes most Floridians cold just looking at it.  The key to this game for the Chiefs is their defense. While they’re an excellent defense overall, they’re a team that can be run on. They’re going to need to stop the run Saturday night to beat Miami. Against teams that were any threat to pass the ball at all, they haven’t won since Thanksgiving, when they beat the Raiders and Aidan O’Connell. Their wins since then have been against Bailey Zappe, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick, not to mention that the Chiefs lost to O’Connell in their rematch. Talk all you want about the Dolphins’ lack of quality wins during the season; the Chiefs haven’t exactly been taking down Hall of Famers since the game in Germany.  What to Expect from Miami:  Let’s get this out of the way: Very few people outside of Miami expect the Dolphins to win. They blew a three-game lead in the division with five games to go, their IR and injury report looks like a random scene from “Platoon,” and as we mentioned, they’re playing in a hostile environment in very cold weather.  However.  As mentioned above, it’s going to be COLD. There’s a reason I’ve capitalized that word. There simply isn’t any way humans become accustomed to negative 30 degree wind chill temperatures. Those sorts of temperatures are only enjoyed by creatures who have learned to adapt to extreme changes in their environment, like polar bears, or Madonna. As a guy who once had a beer freeze while he was drinking it, allow me to assure you that the weather is going to affect the Chiefs as much as it will the Dolphins. The air hurts your face, breathing makes you acutely aware of every hair in your nose, and obscenities spew out of your mouth like Mike McDaniel when he’s excited.  The key for Miami will be establishing and sticking with the run game. Yes, Miami trended away from the run in the second half of last week’s debacle. Yes, Buffalo sold out against the run in the second half, and no, Miami didn’t have a counter.   That cannot happen against Kansas City. If the Chiefs manage to turn the game into a scenario where Miami must rely solely on the pass to win the game…they won’t win the game. This isn’t a slight on Tua, but with a banged-up Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (if he plays), Miami needs to stick with a balanced attack to win. And make no mistake, Miami can win this game against a Kansas City team that just isn’t the same threat they were last year.  And oh, if they win, my friends. If they WIN…  Prediction: Miami 21, Kansas City 14.  The post Now That the Smoke Has Cleared: A Look Ahead to Kansas City appeared first on Miami Dolphins.

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