Bills 21 Fins 14. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

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TheFish
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Joined: January 18th, 2015, 12:19 am

Bills 21 Fins 14. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

It’s been almost 24 hours since I made the long drive back from Hard Rock Stadium after our Miami Dolphins’ regular season ended with a thud after losing the AFC East title battle to the Buffalo Bills 21-14.  I’ve let the emotions and the dust settle in my head and feel I can write an objective article now.  A season once so promising has really gone in reverse since that last four minutes of the Titans game.  What has happened since then?  I think the answer lies within the GBU list below.  I think it’s the coaching, the quarterback, and the injuries on defense (hence, I’m giving Vic Fangio a pass). Last night’s game was certainly a reflection of those same factors.  Josh Allen and the Bills offense ran up and down the field to the tune of 286 total yards in the first half but basically threw away 21 first-half points (end zone interception and an overthrow to a wide-open Stefon Diggs for a long TD, and a drive that stalled on the one-yard line thanks to Jerome Baker and clock mismanagement). In the second half, the Bills squandered more points after Christian Wilkins sacked, stripped, and recovered an Allen fumble on the 21-yard line.  The Bills begged Miami to take the game.  And yet, the supposed strength of the team, its head coach, and his offense could only muster F-O-R-T-Y S-E-V-E-N second-half yards and Z-E-R-O points.  The team’s franchise quarterback threw an interception on the first drive and, fittingly, on the last drive in hopes of tying the game.  And the soldiers continue to fall.  Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, and AVG’s replacement (Cam Goode) did not finish the game and won’t be available next week.  The intricate details are below in this week’s GBU, which looks remarkably similar to last week’s. THE GOOD
  • De’Von Achane (Repeat from last week). The kid’s a baller, no question about it.  He began the game shredding the Bills defense for 50 yards on just six carries including a double cutback touchdown run for 25 yards.  Mysteriously, he gained just six more yards the entire game.
  • Jerome Baker. A darn heroic effort from playing at less than 100%.  Baker made THE play of the first half stopping wide receiver Ty Johnson cold at the one-yard line on the last play of the first half.  Baker had nine tackles before injuring his wrist.  Unfortunately, he won’t be available against the Chiefs.
  • Christian Wilkins. The guy the Fins refuse to pay made the second-best play of the game, as noted above, with the NFL hat trick of a sack, strip, and fumble recovery.  A huge momentum swing for the Fins, which was wasted by a four-play drive and an ensuing 96-yard punt return.
THE BAD
  • Let’s just skip right to the Ugly, shall we (Repeat from last week)?
THE UGLY
  • Coach McDaniel (repeat from last week). I keep hammering our head coach, but he’s the offensive genius, isn’t he?  He took Sean McVay’s West Coast offense playbook, and the Dolphins suddenly became the Greatest Show on Surf, highlighted by a 70 burger on Denver.  But that offense became far too predictable, far too conservative, and far too dependent on one player. Let me throw some numbers at you.  13, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1.  If you add that up, that’s 27, which was Tua’s passing attempts.  The 13 represents Tyreek Hill’s targets.  So just short of 50% of Tua’s throws were to Tyreek.  The entire football community knew.  The Bills certainly knew.  Stop Tyreek.  But time and again, the ball went to number 10 whether he was open or triple-covered.    In the first half, McDaniel ran the ball on first down 12 of 15 times including 11 in a row!  Predictable.
Image The motion or eye candy.  If you haven’t seen it, it can be confusing.  And it was early on as team defenses scrambled noticeably to follow the receivers in motion.  But NFL coaches are a quick study.  Once able to view the game film, the motion became less confusing, more able to ignore, and more predictable. The predictable game plan seldom changed on Sunday night, no matter the game circumstance.  Hey, got a Josh Allen turnover, a quick change of possession, and the defense is caught off guard.  Let’s capitalize and aggressively throw the ball downfield.  Nope, let’s run 11 times in a row on first down. Game situation awareness/clock management/challenges.  These have been an issue all year.  Last night there was a critical missed opportunity game situation.  Situation: Christian Wilkins’ strip sack gave you huge momentum, keeping a slim 14-7 lead.  Time to pounce.  On first and 15, Hill makes a circus sideline catch for 14 yards making it second down and one; however, the catch was close in terms of ball possession and feet in bounds.  The prudent play? Hurry and run a play; avoid a challenge.  But no.  No urgency. No awareness.  He allows Buffalo to challenge the catch, which was ruled incomplete.  Second and one became second and 15.  Second and 15 became second and 30 after a penalty.  Drive over.  Bailey punts and the Bills return it 96 yards for the go-ahead TD.  Any awareness at all more than likely keeps the drive going, and who knows what happens from there? Back to predictability.  Punt return TD.  14-14.  Time to regain the momentum and aggressively move the ball.  Nope.  Run.  Run.  3rd and long and incomplete.  The Bills then drive for the go-ahead TD to go ahead 21-14.  Two more incomplete target throws to Hill and another punt.
  • Tua (repeat from last week). I shouldered a lot of offensive blame on coach McDaniel, but in truth, it’s been a two-edged sword. It’s no secret the Dolphins have struggled against winning teams.  Tua has as well.  Except for the Dallas game, it’s been a complete failure.  To his credit, Tua has improved this season.  Given the time to throw, his accuracy is pinpoint.  However, I think you can say that about most NFL quarterbacks.  If they have time, they will probably find the intended receiver.  But against most teams, especially the elite, quarterbacks don’t have time to sit back and hit their primary targets.  The elite QBs have to improvise, go through progressions, avoid the pass rush, and make plays when they break down.  Such is Tua’s weakness.  If the primary is covered or he is rushed, Tua becomes ordinary at best.  He appears rushed and confused.  Last night was no exception.  His stats, 17-27-173, one touchdown, and two interceptions reflect that.  And who is to blame for Tyreek’s 13 targets?  Tua certainly does his darndest to lock on to his first progression, no matter how many defenders there are.  He must improve his reads and progressions in order for this team and himself to get to the next level.  Yes, he did lead the Fins to a game-winning drive to beat the Cowboys, but last night’s effort ended as it began with an interception.
  • Injuries (repeat from last week). Chalk up three more injuries for an already depleted team.  As noted above, Baker, Van Ginkel, and Good were lost during the game and will not be available for next week.  This team is simply not the juggernaut it once was when healthy on the defensive side.  Offensively, I underestimated the loss of Jaylen Waddle. Tua seemed to miss his number two receiver and made little effort to find his replacements. As for the defensive secondary, see below.
  • Secondary depth. The Achilles Heel finally caved in.  Without Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard on the field at the same time, it was open season for opposing quarterbacks.  Eli Apple and Kader Kohou proved once again that they cannot be relied upon to cover.  Both were burned on numerous occasions.  Not only can’t Apple cover, but he also does not seem to have any field awareness.  Sure, Eli got a hand-gifted interception from Josh Allen.
We waited all year in anticipation of a playoff game, preferably a home game.  Alas, the season crumbled, and now the Fins travel to frigid Kansas City in a rematch against the Chiefs.  The Chiefs open as a 3.5-point favorite.  On a neutral German field, the score was 21-14 Chiefs.  I can’t see that result changing much, considering the game is AT Arrowhead in single-digit temperatures and negative wind chills.

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