Fins vs. Cowboys Tale of the Tape

[TheFish]

Ah yes, the Dolphins hosting the Cowboys, a glorious showdown for two teams that, well, let’s call this game the “Something to Prove Bowl.” For the past five weeks, the Fins have faced the likes of the Raiders, the Jets twice, the Commanders, and the Titans. Combined, those teams compile a lowly 20-36 record. The Fins have beaten just one team with a .500 or better record for the season. That team? The Denver Broncos are 7-7, but in Week 3, they were 0-2, and we all recall what happened in that game. 70-20. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has looked like a world-beater at times and, at times, has looked like the 2-12 Carolina Panthers. Last week on the road, the ‘Boys got blown out 31-10 by the Buffalo Bills,, and it wasn’t even that close. Dallas showed nothing. They ended the game with just 195 total yards, but 80 of those came late in the fourth quarter when it was garbage time. However, just one week before, they had completely dominated the Philadelphia Eagles at home, 33-13. At home are the operative words because Dallas is 7-0 at home and 3-4 on the road. According to statmuse.com, they have averaged 40 points at home while giving up an average of 15. However, on the road, they only average 22 points and have allowed an average of 22. So, you get the picture. On paper, it appears to be dead even in most categories. TEAM STATS (provided by ESPN.com)

• Total Offense – yards per game. Fins are 1st at 414 / Cowboys are 6th at 368.
• Points per game. Fins 1st at 31.5 points per game / Cowboys 2nd at 30.8 per game.
• Passing yards per game. Fins 1st at 274 / Cowboys 6th at 252.
• Rushing yards per game. Fins 4th at 140 / Cowboys 12th at 117.
• Total Defense – yards per game. Fins 5th at 293 / Cowboys 6th at 294.
• Points allowed per game. Fins 14th at 21 points per game / Cowboys 5th at 19 per game.
• Passing yards allowed per game. Fins 10th at 203 / Cowboys 4th at 177 per game.
• Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 4th at 90 / Cowboys 19th at 117.
• Turnover Margin. The Fins have had a rash of turnovers recently and are now in the plus column for the first time. Fins 14th at +2 / Cowboys 3rd at +9
• Total sacks. Fins 2nd at 48 / Cowboys 11th at 40.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

• Tua is 1st in passing yards, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in passing TDs, and 3rd in passer rating. The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is 8th, 6th, 1st, and 4th in those categories.
• Tyreek Hill is ranked 1st in reception yards, 4th in receptions, and 1st in TDs. Cowboys’ top receiver Cee Dee Lamb is 4th, 2nd, and tied 6th in touchdowns.
• Raheem Mostert is 4th in rushing yards, 8th in rushing yards per game, and 1st in rushing TDs. De’Von Achane is 4th in yards per game and 1st in average per carry. Cowboys’ running back Tony Pollard is 8th in rushing yards, 14th in yards per game, and tied for 18th in TDs.
• Miami’s sack leader is Bradley Chubb, who ranks 17th with 9.5 sacks. Cowboys’ superstar Micah Parsons is 8th with 12.5.

HEAD-TO-HEAD Fins offense vs. Cowboys defense. Statistically, these units are pretty even. A highly ranked offense vs. a highly ranked defense. The Cowboys’ passing defense matches up well with the high-powered Dolphins’ passing game. The only glaring separation is the Fins’ running game vs. the Cowboys’ defense. The Miami rushing attack is ranked 4th, but the Dallas rushing D is only ranked 17th. The problem for Miami is their banged-up offensive line, which may not hold up against a formidable Dallas defensive front, which negates any advantage Miami may have in both the passing and running games. Advantage: Even Fins defense vs. Cowboys offense. This is a mirror image of the above. A high-powered offense vs. a staunch defense. If Dolphins safety Jevon Holland plays, that’s a huge upgrade for Miami. Holland is a good run-stopper and is quite capable in pass defense. I think Vic Fangio will have corner Jalen Ramsey shadow Dallas’ elite wide receiver Cee Dee Lamb, so QB Dak Prescott will have to look elsewhere to throw beside his top target. Look for him to target tight end Jake Ferguson. If Miami has any weakness, it has been covering the tight end. Advantage: Even. Kicking game. This game is the same in a category in which the Fins lose this match-up nearly every week. The Cowboys literally have the A-Team. Cowboys’ kicker Brandon Aubrey is an incredible 31 for 31 on field goals made, which includes a long of 60 and 8-8 over 50 yards. Fins kicker Jason Sanders is a mere 17-21 (81%), which is 22nd in the league. Cowboy punter Bryan Anger averages a whopping 51.4 gross yards and 45.5 net. That ranks him 3rd and 2nd in the league. Fins punter Jake Bailey has languished near the bottom of the league in gross and net yards per punt. Bailey is 31st and 23rd at 44.6 and 41.2, although he did get engaged to his beautiful fiancé this week. Huge Advantage: Cowboys. Intangibles. Both teams are fighting for division championships and even conference best records. As already mentioned, both teams have a lot to prove. Both often criticized coaches have a lot to prove. I can see both coaches deciding to go for two points and the win rather than settle for a tie with an extra point. The Dolphins have the home field, which could be the loudest game at Hard Rock Stadium in ages. The biggest intangible for me is the bounce-back factor. Dallas looked horrendous last week, and I think they are an angry team this week. Advantage: Even. OK, prediction time. To be honest, I don’t have a strong feeling one way or another, which is odd for me. Oddsmakers have the Fins as a slight 1.5-point favorite, which I believe is an overreaction to the Cowboys’ blowout loss last week. The line for this week’s game prior to that Bills blowout was Dallas -3. That 4.5-point turnaround is a bit much for me. I will be playing the under 49.5 in this game, as I think both defenses are capable of shutting down the other and will control the game. Who wins? Well, Miami? You have to prove you can beat a good team before I can pick you to win. Dallas wins 21-20.

The post Fins vs. Cowboys Tale of the Tape appeared first on Miami Dolphins.

Source: https://dolphinstalk.com/2023/12/fins-v ... -the-tape/