Dolphins Jets II Preview

[TheFish]

Just three short weeks ago, the Dolphins beat the Jets on the road quite handily 34-13.  The Fins dominated every statistical category except turnovers, where they turned the ball over three times to the Jets’ two.  So, has anything changed with these two teams since they played each other?  I would have answered, “no,” but then last week happened.  The Jets were headed nowhere but then pulled off a big upset when they beat down the favored Houston Texans 30-6 in Zach Wilson’s return as the Jets’ starting quarterback.  The Fins had faced Tim Boyle when they last played. Meanwhile, the Fins shockingly blew a 27-13 lead with only three minutes left in the fourth quarter and lost to the lowly Tennessee Titans 28-27.  Teams winning that late in the game had not lost in 767 consecutive games.  Not only that, the Dolphins literally added injury to insult as they suffered several key injuries and came into this week’s game about as unhealthy as they’ve been all year.  Once again, the tale of the tape heavily sides with Miami, but I’m losing confidence. TEAM STATS

• Total Offense – yards per game. Fins 1st at 424 / Jets are dead last 32nd at 267.
• Points per game. Fins 2nd at 32 points per game / Jets 29th at 16 points per game.
• Passing yards per game. Fins 1st at 279 / Jets 29th at 177.
• Rushing yards per game. Fins 2nd at 145 / Jets 28th at 90.
• Total Defense – yards per game. Fins 9th at 308 / Jets 5th at 299.
• Points allowed per game. Jets 8th at 20 points allowed / Fins 21st at 23 points per game.
• Passing yards allowed per game. Fins 12th at 213 / Jets 2nd at 167 per game.
• Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 7th at 96 / Jets 28th at 132.
• Turnover Margin. Fins 19th at -2 / Jets 23rd at -5.
• Sacks per game. Fins 2nd at 3.2 / Jets 14th at 2.8.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

• Tua is 1st in passing yards, 2nd in passing yards per game, 4th in passing TDs, and 4th in passer rating. The Jets’ on-again-off-again starter Zach Wilson is 24th, 24th, 27th, and 30th in those categories.
• Tyreek Hill is ranked is 1st in reception yards, 2nd in receptions, and 1st in TDs. Jets’ top receiver, Garrett Wilson, is 15th in receptions, 21st in yards, and tied 51st in TDs.
• Raheem Mostert is 6th in rushing yards per game and 1st in rushing TDs. De’Von Achane is 3rd in yards per game and 1st in average per carry.  Jets’ running back Breece Hall is 27th in rushing yards and has scored only 2 TDs.
• Miami’s leader is Bradley Chubb, is 23rd with six sacks. Jets’ defensive lineman Bryce Huff is 41st with 5.

HEAD-TO-HEAD Fins offense vs. Jets defense.   The Jets defense is no slouch.  They are ranked 5th overall, 2nd in passing yards per game allowed, and 8th in points allowed per game.  That matches up well with the Fins’ high-powered and highly-ranked passing offense.  That’s pretty much a push.  However, the edge here seems to favor the Fins running game vs. the Jets rushing defense.  That is a two vs. 28 match-up.  If the Fins are to make hay, it appears to be running the ball this week, especially if Tyreek Hill doesn’t play or is less than 100%.  Advantage Fins running game. Fins defense vs. Jets offense.  The Dolphin defense looked like world-beaters for the last six games up until four minutes to go against the Titans when everything fell apart.  Safety Javon Holland looks unlikely to play, as is fellow safety DeShon Elliott.  Linebacker Duke Riley is in for the injured Jerome Baker.  Yet, this unit is formidable.  They’re going up against a weak Jets offense and, in my opinion, a below-average quarterback.  Once again, I think this unit will be more valuable than the offense this week.  Advantage Fins.

Kicking game.  Jets’ kicker Greg Zeurlein is an amazing 27 for 28 in field goals, made good for 96%, and 3rd in the league.  In stark contrast, Fins kicker Jason Sanders has hit only 14-18 field goals for 78%, which is 28th in the league.  Ex-Fins punter Thomas Morestead is averaging a solid 49.2 gross yards per punt and 42.2 net yards, good for 8th and 13th in the league.  Fins punter Jake Bailey is 27th and 17th at 45.5 and 41.8.  Big Advantage Jets. Intangibles.  The Jets play the spoiler role.  They’d love nothing better than to knock off their twice-a-year rivals, who are fighting for playoff supremacy.  For the Fins, they’re at a bit of a crossroads.  They’ve lost their invincibility at home.  They’re banged up.  Sure, they’re more than likely playoff-bound and have something to play for, but they could be mentally down without their on-the-field leader in Tyreek Hill.  Advantage Even. The Fins had been cruising along at 9-3 dominating weaker opponents one by one, especially at home.  That invincibility is gone now, and what’s left is a lot of unknowns.  I tell ya, what worries me most are the injuries at key positions.  At the time of this writing, it is unclear whether Tyreek Hill will play.  Ankle injuries are tricky.  Rest is one of the best antidotes.  If I were Miami, I would sit Hill and get him as healthy as possible for the brutal Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills finish.  I think they can scrape by this week, but it won’t be easy.  The oddsmakers know something as well.  Before that Monday night loss, the Fins were favored by 13.5 points.  That line is now down to 8.5.  I’m assuming Hill does not play or is not as effective as he would be at 100%.  I think the Fins win but will not cover.  Fins win 21-14. The post Dolphins Jets II Preview appeared first on Miami Dolphins.

Source: https://dolphinstalk.com/2023/12/dolphi ... i-preview/