Fearless Forecast Week 14

[TheFish]

Well, it took me 13 weeks to implode.  Last week I suffered my first below .500 week going 6-7. I expected a free fall in the @andyslater pick ‘em challenge pool, but I maintained 9th place at 108-85 (56.0%) for the season and 9 games behind the leader.  But the Pick 5 championship dream is over after a 1-4 week falling to 71st at 36-29 (55.4%). Time to dust myself off and turn it around this week. JETS +5.5 vs. Texans.  Last week’s ‘makes no sense’ pick won with the Packers over the Chiefs.  Here’s this week’s version.  The only thing I can say is that I think Zach Wilson will have a point to prove upon his return and keep the game close.  This is clearly a hunch. SAINTS -5.5 vs. Panthers.  This is basically an exact replica of last week’s Bucs/Panthers game where the Bucs were favored at home by 5.5 and did not cover.  I had the Bucs.  I should learn my lesson.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  I’m hoping Derrick Carr doesn’t play.  The 5-7 Saints desperately need the game in the battle for the NFC South. JAGS +3.5 @ Browns.  This is a likely to be a battle of back-up quarterbacks if Jags starter Trevor Lawrence can’t play although it’s looking like he will give it a go.  In a game where nobody should be favored, I’ll take the points. BENGALS +1.5 vs. Colts.  Battle of the back-up QBs II.  Browning vs. Minshew.  What could be more exciting?  The Bengals got a dose of CPR last week as Browning looked like Joe Burrow himself.  Can he back it up?  It looked like the Bengals had written off the season until last week’s upset of the Jags on the road.  Both teams need the game.  I’m backing the kid over the ‘stache. BEARS +3.5 vs Lions.  ‘Makes no sense’ pick #2.  The 9-3 Lions rolled last week and have the division in hand.  The Lions beat the Bears a few weeks ago 21-16 in Detroit.  Perhaps the Bears can improve by a couple of points at home.

RAMS +7.5 @ Ravens.  These are two teams I’ve not figured out all year, so it won’t surprise me in the least if I get this one wrong.  The Rams have won 3 in a row which has broken a trend of theirs to be good one week and bad the next.  The weather forecast is rain and wind which favors a closer game, so let’s take the points here. BUCS +2.5 @ Falcons. 5-7 vs. 6-6 in a battle for the NFC South lead.  I’ve picked against both teams all year and don’t believe in either.  For me, it comes down to the QBs and I give the slight edge to Baker Mayfield over Desmond Ridder. RAIDERS +3.5 vs. Vikings.  Like the first game mentioned, I think Vikings’ QB Josh Dobbs has a point to prove after hearing rumors of his benching.  However, the home team Raiders are getting a nice 3.5 points and if it were any less, I’d take the Vikings. SEAHAWKS -10.5 vs. 49ers.  The thinking here is that the 49ers will have a letdown after their dominating performance against the Eagles on the road.  If ‘Hawks QB Geno Smith doesn’t play, this game probably won’t be close with Drew Lock at QB. BRONCOS +2.5 @ Chargers.  Two largely underperforming and disappointing teams of which I have no confidence in.  My tipping point in this one is the coaching.  I’m taking Sean Payton over Brandon Staley. CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Bills.  The 6-6 Bills certainly need this game more than the 8-4 Chiefs.  A loss here by Buffalo all but eliminates them from the playoffs.  I usually like that intangible, but the Bills cannot seem to find it this year.  Head Coach Sean McDermott has spent the week apologizing for his 9/11 comments.  The Chiefs have had success over the Bills in recent years, and I think that trend continues. EAGLES +3.5 @ Cowboys.  Game of the Week II.  The battle for the NFC East is on as the 10-2 Eagles go on the road to face the hot 9-3 Cowboys.  The Eagles won the first match up of the year, but most experts are taking Dallas.  For me, this is a line-based pick.  I cannot pass up the 3 ½ points. PACKERS -6.5 @ Giants.  I’m normally early on the bandwagon and early off.  I got on the Packers’ bandwagon early, and they’ve played quite well especially QB Jordan Love.  I can certainly see a letdown after beating the Chiefs last week.  The experts are backing back-up QB Tommy DeVito.  As usual, I’m going the opposite way from the experts. FINS -13.5 vs. Titans.  The Titans only chance at keeping this close is if they control the clock with Derrick Henry and keep Tua and company on the sidelines.  If the Fins have another turnover-free week, I think they cover.  Fins 35-17.  PICK 5 BENGALS +1.5 vs. Colts SEAHAWKS +10.5 @ 49ers CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Bills EAGLES +3.5 @ Cowboys FINS -13.5 vs. Titans The post Fearless Forecast Week 14 appeared first on Miami Dolphins.

Source: https://dolphinstalk.com/2023/12/fearle ... t-week-14/