Takeaways from Miami’s defeat against Buffalo

[TheFish]

• The Playoff road got harder long-term

Entering the Week 18 slate, Miami had an opportunity to play the Steelers in the opening round of the playoffs if certain matchups went their way; unfortunately, that won’t be the case due to the Jaguars and Dolphins losing. Had Miami won against Buffalo, they’d have played the Bills again, a matchup that hasn’t favored Miami since Josh Allen arrived in Buffalo. If Miami had won both games, the playoff road would have been favorable, with Miami getting another home game against a lower-seeded opponent and avoiding going to Baltimore until the AFC Championship. Instead, they now find themselves with the tough task of winning three road games in a row to make the Super Bowl, something only three teams have done.  On the bright side, Miami will now go to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that, despite the track record of success in recent years, find themselves reeling and not looking like the powerhouse we’ve all gotten accustomed to seeing under Andy Reid & Patrick Mahomes. Since beating Miami in Germany, Mahomes has gone 3-4 and has scored more than 20 points in only two of those games.

• Miami missed Waddle

In the first half of the game, Miami was moving the ball well, totaling 225 yards. In the second half, they amassed only 47 yards.  The Dolphins got out of the game fast, with Achane & Wilson succeeding in the run game. Once the Bills adjusted and made Miami take downfield shots, they were toast. With Tyreek Hill prioritized by the defense and their complementary weapons not being able to win their matchups, Miami could not move the ball. Having Waddle back in the lineup changes how defenses can play Miami, as he can take the top off a defense on any given play. Not having him available proved costly in this game.

• Offensive Line plays a clean game

This game marked the return of talented right guard Robert Hunt to the starting lineup. His presence bolstered Miami’s offensive line, resulting in their best performance in recent weeks. Despite Miami’s offensive struggles in the second half, which were mainly due to Buffalo deploying eight defenders in the box, the line performed well. They ensured Tua Tagovailoa had clean pockets and ample time to throw, protecting him from sacks against Buffalo’s talented defensive line. Additionally, the offensive line played a key role in clearing paths for running backs Achane and Wilson, who averaged a solid 5.4 yards per carry.

• Injuries take a toll

Coming into the game, Miami had already lost their top two edge rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, who were each putting together Pro Bowl-caliber seasons. However, Andrew Van Ginkel had become one of the bright spots on the Dolphins’ defense as he filled in for the injured Phillips. Unfortunately for Miami, he became yet another injury that they couldn’t afford to have. Now Miami will have to rely on Melvin Ingram & Emmanuel Ogbah. Ingram was a free agent for most of the season, and Ogbah was a healthy scratch in Week 17. It’s not a good spot to be in when facing a 2x MVP next week.

• Another costly INT by Tua Tagovailoa

There have been a lot of positives from the Dolphins QB this season, primarily the fact he started all 17 games. However, his failure to deliver in crucial moments of big games has been disappointing, especially since he first made his name as the Quarterback who came off the bench at half-time to lead his College team to a National Championship. The most troubling plays from him have all been interceptions that have shifted crucial games in a negative for Miami. Here are the worst ones:

• Week 4: Dolphins down 14 against Buffalo in the 3rd Quarter. Tagovailoa intercepted on the 2nd play of the drive. Bills would go up 21 on the ensuing possession. 
• Week 7: Dolphins down seven against the Eagles in the 4th Quarter.  Miami with the ball at the Eagles 26. Tagovailoa throws an interception. Philadelphia would go up 14 on the ensuing drive.
• Week 17: Dolphins down eight against Baltimore in the 2nd Quarter. Miami with the ball at the Baltimore 44. Tagovailoa throws an interception. Ravens would go up 15 on the ensuing possession.  
• Week 18: Dolphins down seven against Buffalo in the 4th Quarter. Miami with the ball at the Buffalo 40. Tagovailoa throws an interception. Bills proceed to run out the clock.

Tagovailoa is a talented young Quarterback, but he’s got to start coming through in big moments for Miami to take the next step. 

• Tyreek in Big Games

Tyreek Hill finished yet another electric season with the Dolphins, again breaking the single-season record for most yards in Franchise history. Despite his impressive season, Hill experienced notable low points in crucial games:

• Week 7: Wide-open Touchdown drop against Philadelphia with Miami down seven.
• Week 9: Fumble returned for a Touchdown vs Chiefs to make the deficit 21-0 at halftime.
• Week 17: Wide-open Touchdown drop against the Ravens with the game tied.
• Week 18: Third down drop with Miami down seven in the 4th Quarter against the Bills.

Additionally, Hill also dropped a pass on the final drive, but defensive pass interference ended up making the play still a net positive. However, had Hill caught the ball, he’d have had at least 10-15 yards after the catch. Miami needs its superstar wide receiver to be at his best in big moments, and that hasn’t been the case.

• One more chance to change the narrative

Every single Dolphin fan knows the narrative that’s plagued the season: they can’t beat good teams. This is evident in Miami’s 1-5 record against playoff teams, with a -91 point differential. The best way of changing the narrative is by beating the defending Super Bowl champions on their home turf. For all the negative comments I and others have written or said about Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill & Mike McDaniel in big games, a win in Arrowhead completely shifts the narrative. Personally, I like Miami’s chances against the Chiefs.

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