Dolphins vs Commanders Preview

[TheFish]

For the sixth time in the last eight weeks, your Miami Dolphins face a mediocre opponent and are heavy favorites.  Up this week, the ‘mighty’ Washington Commanders who are a 9.5-point underdog at home.  The beat goes on as the Fins are heavy favorites on paper, as the tape’s tale says. TEAM STATS

• Total Offense – yards per game. Fins 1st at 431 / Commanders 14th at 344.
• Points per game. Fins 2nd at 31 points per game /Commanders 20th at 21 points per game.
• Passing yards per game. Fins 1st at 285 /Commanders 9th at 247.
• Rushing yards per game. Fins 2nd at 145 /Commanders 25th at 97.
• Total Defense – yards per game. Fins are a rapidly climbing 7th at 305 /Commanders 29th at 378.
• Points allowed per game. Fins 23rd at 23 points per game /Commanders are dead last 32nd at 29.
• Passing yards allowed per game. Fins up to 11th at 212 /Commanders 30th at 265.
• Rush yards allowed per game. Fins 6th at 93 /Commanders 17that 113.
• Turnover Margin. Fins 23rd at -5 /Commanders dead last 32nd at -9.
• Sacks per game. Fins all the way up to 2nd at 3.5 /Commanders 10th at 2.9.

INDIVIDUAL STATS

• Tua is 3rd in passing yards per game, 3rd in passing TDs, and 4th in passer rating. The Commanders’ QB Sam Howell is 5th, 10th, 21st in those categories.
• Tyreek Hill is ranked is 1st in reception yards and yards per game, 2nd in receptions, and 1st in TDs.  Commanders’ top receiver, Terry McLaurin is 18th and 33rd in receptions and yards per game.  Jahan Dotson has 4 TDs good for a tie for 30th.
• Raheem Mostert is 2nd in rushing yards, 5th in rush yards per game, and 1st in rushing TDs. Commanders’ running back Bryan Robinson, Jr. is 17th, 28th, and 14th in those categories.
• Miami’s sack leaders are Christian Wilkens and Jaelen Phillips (now out for the year) at 6.5 sacks. Commanders’ defensive lineman Jonathan Allen is 38th with 5.5.

HEAD-TO-HEAD Fins offense vs. Commanders defense.   This is the biggest mismatch of the game.  The Fins are ranked 1st or 2nd in every offensive category, while the Commanders are ranked near last in every category except rush yards allowed.  The Fins could add even more power and speed to the offense if running backs Chris Brooks and De’Von Achane return from injury.  Big Advantage Fins. Fins defense vs. Commanders offense.  The big story right now in Miami is actually the defense and not the offense.  What once was a bottom ten defense has surged to a now arguably a top 10 defense.  Passing against this team has become a chore, with Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard at the corners accompanied by a consistent pass rush.  Unfortunately, the pass rush lost one of its leaders when Jaelen Phillips went down with a season-ending Achilles injury.  However, Emmanuel Ogbah and Andrew Van Ginkel are more than capable of picking up the slack.  On the other side of the ball, Washington is more than capable on offense.  QB Sam Howell has had a respectable year, and they have some talent at the skill positions with Bryan Robinson, Jr. and Terry McLaurin, amongst others.  Still, I think Miami’s defense has become the heart of the team and will once again carry the load.  Advantage Fins. Kicking game.  This is a category that the Dolphins rarely, if ever, have the advantage.  Last week, however, Fins’ kicker Jason Sanders hit on both field goals and has now hit on 11 of 14 (79%), which is only ahead of five other full-time kickers.  Commanders’ kicker Joey Slye has not been a consistent kicker in his career and is 17 for 21 (81%) in field goals made good, which is 23rd in the league. Commanders’ punter Tress Way is averaging 47.0 gross yards per punt and 41.7 net yards, good for 20th and 19th in the league.  Fins’ punter Jake Bailey is 26th and 14th at 45.5 and 42.2, respectively.  Slight Advantage Commanders. Intangibles.  On the Commanders’ side, they don’t have much to play for other than draft position.  They’ve traded away their top pass rushers, and their head coach Ron Rivera’s job seems to be in jeopardy.  For the Dolphins, it’s all about the playoffs, winning its division, and getting at least one home playoff game.  To do that, it has to beat the weaker teams it plays, which it has consistently done all year.  I don’t know what, if anything, HBO’s Hard Knocks tells you, but it sure appears the team is a close-knit group among its players and coaches. The weather in the DC area will be cool but not too cool, which will help the Fins.   Advantage Fins. There really is no excuse for this game to be close.  The only way it becomes close is if the Dolphins continue to turn the ball over and give the Commanders short fields and scoring opportunities.  Giving 9.5 points on the road is usually a loser, but I’ll ride with Miami this week.  Fins win 27-17 The post Dolphins vs Commanders Preview appeared first on Miami Dolphins.

Source: https://dolphinstalk.com/2023/11/dolphi ... s-preview/