Grading the Cowboys 2024 draft: Risk-value analysis, pick by pick

[DrRage]

NFL draft weekend has officially concluded, and the hot takes are now rolling in. Draft grades are raining down from the heavens, saturating every corner of the NFL landscape and infuriating pockets of fans along the way. Instant decrees of “boom” and “bust” are confidently applied and fanbases respond predictably, backing into their respective corners and infighting incessantly.Cowboys’ fans are particularly quarrelsome in 2024. After one of the most disappointing offseasons in recent memory, it’s a fanbase already divided. Not since the People vs Pineapple on Pizza graced the floors of the Supreme Court has opposing sides felt so sure of themselves.On one side, optimistic Cowboys fans see the ceilings many of the newly drafted prospects offer. They see needs filled and can’t-miss potential everywhere on the roster as the Cowboys make a bid for their fourth consecutive 12-win season. On the other side, the skepticism takes over. Skeptics see too many project players and a complete lack of urgency from the franchise. With the limited contributions of the 2023 class still haunting their memories, they see another season of role players failing to meet even the lowest of rookie expectations.While it’s true the Cowboys have been extremely successful in hitting big in many of their previous drafts, they are not above reproach in many parts of their process. Their ability to scout players is not under assault here, it’s their decision-making process and overall strategy that’s being assessed.In other words, this particular draft grade analysis is not like the others. Instead of predicting the success or failure of a prospect, this sets out with a more scientifically objective approach.  Scouting reports are for predicting the future; this multifaceted analysis is about the here and now and the soundness of the decisions at the time.As has been the case in previous years, these draft grades are based on information we have today. Grades will be applied to the following categories:

• Consensus draft value vs draft spot

• Positional value  

• Surplus value (rookie savings of position compared to cost of veteran)

• Need (the Cowboys current need at the position)

• Risk (bust potential of a prospect)

• Scarcity (depth of position in the draft class at time of selection)

A player who grades poorly on the above metrics is not destined to fail just like a prospect who grades highly isn’t sure to succeed. Again, this is not about fortune telling but rather an analysis of the decision-making process. Just because Joe Dirt won the Powerball doesn’t mean he made sound retirement decisions by investing his entire nest egg in the lottery. Joe Dirt scores an “F” in investment strategy because the strategy was flawed.With any luck this will spark more thoughtful analysis across the Cowboys fanbase and push people to think more about the process than whatever the final result is three or four years down the road.  A grade of 80 will represent fully meeting expectations of the respective category and should be seen as a success rather than a slight. Certain low value positions will automatically score low in some categories while high value positions will automatically score high.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/ ... -analysis/