Mike McCarthy's predictability here a detriment to Cowboys' offense

[DrRage]

Two running back personnel packages (21 and 22 personnel) aren’t a common deployment for most NFL teams. Outside of San Francisco, most teams avoid putting two RBs on the field together since the intentions are typically pretty obvious to defenses. Most commonly fielded as a fullback and halfback, 21 and 22 personnel typically indicate the team is going to run the ball. In short-yardage situations and lined up in bunch formation, it often comes between the tackles. It’s more a game of willpower, leverage and strength than it is strategy or deception. In today’s parity-filled NFL, that’s something most successful coaches try to avoid. In 2023 the Cowboys ran 21 personnel (2RB, 1TE) 33 times and 22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE) 17 times. In those instances, they ran the ball 66.67% of the time and 76.47% of the time respectively. Given the situations of those plays the Cowboys pass rate over expected in 21 personnel was -19.75 and in 22 personnel -15.64 (yes, those numbers are negative). In each case the Cowboys are producing a negative EPA/play and in each case the EPA/play is markedly higher when they pass. The Cowboys are extremely predictable when they go to 2RB sets.
21 personnel: -19.78% PROE
22 personnel: -15.64% PROE
Both are producing an EPA/play at least 2x higher passing, yet they insist on running in the most transparent way possible. Madness. — Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) May 21, 2024 Being so run-heavy in 21 and 22 personnel, opponents had a good idea of the Cowboys’ intentions and played the situations accordingly. In both personnel groups the Cowboys produced better EPA/play passing than they did rushing, so it stands to reason they should have been passing the ball more often. San Francisco, who plays primarily out of 21 personnel, are considered one of the better rushing teams in the NFL. Yet, like Dallas, they also perform better passing out of 21 and 22 personnel than they run it. A big difference between them and the Cowboys is the 49ers pass the ball at a pass rate over expected in each, while Dallas has a pass rate far below expected. Looking at the rosters most will agree, San Francisco is the far superior rushing offense between the two teams. If anyone should be stubbornly and transparently rushing the ball in these situations, it’s them. But instead of relying on their talent to win in a transparent and predictable way, they employ strategy and deception and pass. The Cowboys just seem to embrace their transparency. Offensive coaches worth their salt will look to misdirection and deception to best their opponents. Even if they have the more talented roster, it’s considered the path of least resistance to be less transparent in play-calling and play design. It’s a way for the Cowboys to greatly improve their output in 2024 even if they didn’t improve their roster. As luck would have it, the Cowboys have a FB who can be playmaker as a pass catcher. Hunter Luepke isn’t the most proven player in the Dallas backfield, but he’s one of the more versatile. Able to run the ball in a single set, a dual set, in short yardage, in pass protection, and as a pass-catcher, Luepke give the Cowboys a versatile piece to play with if they want to be less transparent in those two RB sets. Even if Luepke’s not the answer to this problem, the point is clear – be less transparent on offense. If one player is so one-dimensional transparency is unavoidable, then avoid playing that player. That’s how important mystery is on offense. An offer for Cowboys fans For the best local news, sports, entertainment and culture coverage, subscribe to the Austin American-Statesman. $1 for 6 months Replacing Gallup isn’t as easy as it sounds for 2024 CowboysCan slot snaps help Deuce Vaughn carve role with Cowboys?Tyler Guyton's biggest challenge as Cowboys rookie Email Sign up Like this article? Sign up for the Cowboys Wire email newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning An error has occured Please re-enter your email address. Thanks for signing up! You'll now receive the top Cowboys Wire stories each day directly in your inbox.

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