Photo by Simon Bruty for The Washington Post via Getty Images I think it’s safe to say we’ve officially entered the throes of the offseason, where there’s not much going on on the practice field, and things are slowing down significantly until we get to training camp in July. So, for the next several months, speculation abounds. Today, I’m going to explore what the realistic range of outcomes for Washington’s 2024 draft picks might be, based on how players at the same position, taken at roughly the same point in the draft, performed last year. Let’s jump right in. Round 1, Pick 2 - Jayden Daniels (QB) Washington’s new QB1 is going to be given every chance to succeed in his rookie season. “Success” would surely look something like this: Best Case Scenario - CJ Stroud (R1, P2) Stroud played in 15 games, threw for over 4,100 yards and notched 26 total TDs. He helped lead the Texans from a 3-13-1 record in 2022 to a 10-7 record and a playoff berth in his rookie season. If Daniels can match Stroud’s Offensive Rookie of the Year season, there will be wild celebrations in DC. Worst Case Scenario - Anthony Richardson (R1, P4) Taken two slots after Stroud, Richardson went 2-2 in the first five games for the Colts before going down with injury and missing the rest of the season. Concussed in week 2, and suffering an AC joint sprain that required shoulder surgery in week 5. Richardson is already well down the path that many worried he might go down before the draft. 
Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images Round 2, Pick 36 - Johnny Newton (DT) Many observers thought Newton was a first round talent who Washington was very fortunate to grab in the early second round. Assuming Newton is fully healthy to begin the season, how impactful can he be? Best Case Scenario - Kobie Turner (R3, P89) Turner was a beast for the Rams last year. In 17 games, he accrued 9 sacks and ended up being named to the Pro Football Writers’ Association All-Rookie team. Worst Case Scenario - Broderic Martin (R3, P96) Taken just seven slots after Turner, Martin was a non-factor in his rookie season. Martin was inactive on game day for the Lions for most of his rookie season, but was also considered “raw” with “developmental upside” in a way that the much more pro-ready Newton is rarely described. Round 2, Pick 50 - Mike Sainristil (CB) Best Case Scenario - Tyrique Stevenson (R2, P56) Stevenson was great addition to the Bears defense, starting 16 games, despite some rough patches early in the season. He was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week in week 17, and ended his season with 86 tackles, 4 interceptions, and an incredible 16 pass break ups. Worst Case Scenario - Emmanuel Forbes (R1, P16) Washington fans are intimately familiar with Forbes’ lackluster rookie year, where he seemed to be abused by another NFC East wide receiver just about every other week. In an effort to find out how he might help the team, he’s most recently been deployed as a return man in OTAs. 
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images Round 2, Pick 53 - Ben Sinnott (TE) Best Case Scenario - Sam LaPorta (R2, P34) Last year, LaPorta posted one of the best rookie tight end seasons in recent memory. Putting up almost 900 yards through the air and 10 TDs, he was an integral part of the Lions’ explosive offense. If Sinnott gets anywhere close to these numbers, fans will be very pleased. Worst Case Scenario - Brenton Strange (R2, P61) Strange played in 14 games last season, but like many rookie tight ends, was a non-factor in his team’s offensive production. Totaling 5 receptions for 35 yards and 1 TD, the Jaguars hope Strange will continue developing into a meaningful component of their offense in the coming years. Round 3, Pick 67 - Brandon Coleman (OT) Best Case Scenario - Blake Freeland (R4, P106) Freeland ended up starting 9 games for the Colts at tackle (2 at LT and 7 at RT) last year and was a critical depth piece when the initial starters went down. It’s not clear what Freeland’s future looks like in Indy, but it could end up being as a swing tackle. Worst Case Scenario - Tyler Steen (R3, P65) Steen started one game at tackle for the Eagles last season, and it looks like his future in Philly could be as their right guard. @DougMcCrayNFL and I were lucky enough to have @JimNagy_SB join the show.I asked him about Luke McCaffrey, who stood out at the Senior Bowl. pic.twitter.com/Fw9HPOUPNW— George Carmi (@Gcarmi21) May 22, 2024 Round 3, Pick 100 - Luke McCaffrey (WR) Best Case Scenario - Puka Nacua (R5, P177) Under normal circumstances, I would be reluctant to post a comp to the most successful rookie WR in league history.....unless I had just heard the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy make that comparison for the second time, on a podcast earlier in the week (see above). Will McCaffrey match Nacua’s rookie year? Highly unlikely, but this is a true “best case scenario.” Worst Case Scenario - Tre Tucker (R3, P100) The 100th pick in last year’s draft was a wide receiver as well. The Raiders’ Tucker posted 19 receptions for 331 yards and 2 TDs. Not terrible WR3 numbers, but ones that I think would disappoint most Washington fans. Round 5, Pick 139 - Jordan Magee (LB) Best Case Scenario - Henry To’oTo’o (R5, P167) Another member of the Texans’ incredible 2023 rookie class, To’oTo’o played in 14 games, starting 6, and collected 61 tackles and two tackles for a loss. If Magee could contribute at that level this season, that would be “success” for the 5th rounder. Worst Case Scenario - Yasir Abdullah (R5, P136) Abdullah played in 5 games for the Jaguars, making one tackle, and was a complete non-factor in the special teams game. Round 5, Pick 161 - Dominique Hampton (S) Best Case Scenario - Jerrick Reed (R6, P198) Reed was used by the Seahawks almost entirely on special teams during his rookie season, where he had 11 tackles. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL in week 11. Worst Case Scenario - Daniel Scott (R5, P158) Scott tore his ACL in the June OTAs with the Colts and missed the entire season. Round 7, Pick 222 - Javontae Jean-Baptiste (EDGE) Best Case Scenario - Andre Jones (R7, P233) Washington’s Jones played largely on special teams last season, though he did end up with two starts on defense - as a result of the team’s thinness at the position. He finished with 4 tackles and three passes defensed. Worst Case Scenario - BJ Thompson (R5, P166) Thompson played in one game for the Chiefs last season, making two tackles, and was a non-factor.
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