David Banks-USA TODAY Sports The Spurs have a shot at the top pick and could end up with two lottery picks if the ping-pong balls bounce in their favor. Sunday, May 12 could be a big day for the Spurs’ rebuild. After another losing season, San Antonio will pick highly in the draft, but the NBA draft lottery will determine their slot. The chances of getting the top selection aren’t great but still exist, and the Silver and Black could land a second pick in the top 10 with some luck. Spurs fans have become more familiar with the lottery after a few losing seasons, but it can still be a little hard to understand how it all works. So let’s break it down. How does the lottery work? Let’s allow the NBA to explain this one: Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.(...) The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks. The process is relatively simple to understand and extremely hard to rig, so don’t pay attention to conspiracy theories. What are the odds of the Spurs getting the top pick? And how would they get Toronto’s lottery pick? The worse a team’s record is at the end of the season, the more combinations they get in the lottery, which means a higher chance at the top picks. The Spurs finished with the fifth-worst record in the league, so that means their odds of landing the top pick sit at 10.5 percent. Here’s a breakdown of the odds for every participating team: Pistons, Wizards and Hornets: 14.0 percent Trail Blazers: 12.5 percent Spurs: 10.5 percent Raptors 9.0 percent Grizzlies: 7.5 percent Jazz: 6.0 percent Nets: 4.5 percent Hawks: 3.0 percent Bulls: 2.0 percent Rockets: 1.5 percent Kings: 0.8 percent Warriors: 0.7 percent Remember, the lottery is used for the top four picks, which means that the Spurs could move up even if they don’t get the top pick and could move down if any of the teams below them get lucky and land on the top four. Now, someone vaulting past the Spurs wouldn’t be the worst thing. If that happens and the team that moves up is not the Raptors, Toronto’s pick would go to San Antonio. The pick, which the Spurs received in the Jakob Poeltl trade, is top-six protected. The Raptors finished with the sixth-worst record in the league so if no one moves, they’ll keep it. But if one of the franchises sitting below them vaults past them, they’ll lose it. In short, the best-case scenario for the Spurs is getting the top pick by moving up themselves and the seventh pick by having one of the teams below the Raptors move into the top four. What happens if luck isn’t on the Spurs’ side on Sunday? It’s likely neither the Spurs nor anyone below the Raptors will move up. In that case, San Antonio would go into the 2024 NBA draft with the fifth pick, which is not the dream scenario but wouldn't be terrible, either. This draft lacks a consensus top pick and there’s some uncertainty in the top five, so whoever it is that Brian Wright considers the best prospect in this class could fall to San Antonio. Teams above the Spurs might also be willing to trade down. As for the Raptors’ pick, if it doesn’t convey this year, Toronto would still owe a first-rounder to the Spurs. The pick will be top-six protected for two extra years before becoming two second-rounders, but the Raptors should be good enough next season to fight for a playoff spot and send their 2025 draft pick to San Antonio. The next class is more heralded than this one, so getting, say, the 14th pick next year could be similar value to getting the seventh this year. When is the lottery and how can I watch it? The 2024 draft lottery will take place on Sunday, May 12 and the results will be announced at 2 p.m. CST on ABC. Source: https://www.poundingtherock.com/2024/5/ ... rs-raptors