A Message To You, Ime. | Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports Below Average Opponent Scoring, 17pt Margin of Defeat A second matchup with OKC in three days. Same result. Rockets hang tough for part of the game, and then utterly fall apart as their offense fails to keep pace. It’s not the defense. OKC averages almost 121 points scored per game. NBA team scoring average is nearly 115 points per game, at present. Tonight, in a game they lost by 17 the Rockets held the Oklahoma City Thunder to nearly 10 points below their season scoring average, and three points below NBA average. That is actually very good defense, under the circumstances. The Thunder, on average, give up 114 points per game, almost dead average, but their offense is so good, it’s lead them into contention for first place in the Western Conference. So, roughly, in theory, if the Rockets scored an average, not great, average, NBA number of points tonight, and the hold the Thunder to 112, they would have in theory won. They weren’t close to that because their offense is dismal. I bet I know what many of you are thinking. It’s Jalen Green’s fault! He’s the problem, he takes the most shots, and he’s ruining everything. Jalen hasn’t been good lately, or much of the season, but let’s unpack “most shots”. It sounds like he’s some sort of piggish player, but no, he really isn’t. He took 17 shots, Jabari Smith took 16 (Luka and Kyrie took 29 and 24 tonight, respectively.) They both made about an equal percentage of those shots, a bad one. Those are below the average number of shots I’d expect team offensive leaders to take. The Rockets are not a heliocentric offense, almost no one breaks 25+ shots a game regularly. The upside is, it’s hard to key in on one player and stop that player. The downside is, if all but two people (tonight Alpie and Cam) shoot it terribly, there’s basically nowhere to turn for points. Why? Because even a good night, on fairly low volume, from a single player, doesn’t change much of anything in a game like this. Let’s say Jalen shot it well. Instead of 6 of 17, he goes 10 of 17. I don’t think anyone would say that wasn’t a good night shooting it. So let’s give Jalen three extra two pointers, and one three. The Rockets lose by 8. Let’s make Jabari shoot it a bit better. Let’s say 9-16 with an extra two pointer, and an extra 3. Rockets lose by 3. The Rockets still lose, even though they held OKC to nearly 10 points below their season scoring average. Because even when we hypothetically adjust to having good shooting from two key players, their volume doesn’t get you there. And remember, Alpie DID have a good shooting night, at 8-13. Pretty much everyone has to have a good night in a spread it around offense. The problem is, Dillon Brooks isn’t really a good scorer. Neither is Fred VanVleet. And unfortunately, neither are Jalen and Jabari. Are all these players just bad on their own? Maybe. The key players are young. They’re still likely to improve a lot. Yet, even with us adjusting shooting percentages up for Jalen and Jabari, and a good Alpie night, the Rockets would have managed to score...6 points below NBA team scoring averages this season. And still lose, after holding OKC well below their usual output. You just can’t defend your way to victory in the modern NBA. Not if you have to break, say, 115 points, too. Does Ime Udoka know this? I’m not sure he does. I’ve never seen a team work harder to get as few points as these Rockets. Sure, there’s blame to fall on not making open shots, there’s blame to fall on everyone’s favorite targets. None of that changes the fact that even if you adjust scoring to be considerably more efficient, the output still wouldn’t get you a victory, on a good defensive night, against a very good team. As good a leader of men as Ime appears to be, you can’t win if you don’t score. I’ve said it many times but the stat most associated with winning is points. And the Rockets just don’t score enough of them. I honestly wonder if they can, the way their offense works. Nothing is ever easy, and when it’s that way on offense, and max effort on defense, it’s a hard road. That must change. Maybe it will naturally, as the key players gain experience, but overall OKC isn’t an experienced crew, and they score a bunch. Yes, they have a superstar, but their offense seems to produce a ton of easy drives, cuts, and truly wide open looks. Meanwhile, every defense more or less prepares for the Rockets the same way. Pack the paint, or hang out right by it. Then you can instantly swarm Sengun with at least two, sometimes three or four, defenders. Or you can slap at drivers’ dribbles as they attack the rim. The Rockets are so bad at shooting it, running out on shooters from that position, near the paint, is fine, it works. If the Rockets DO manage to attack this successfully, switch to a zone, because they’ll spend half a quarter adjusting to it at all. It was only by extra ordinary effort, tonight about 23 second chance points, that the Rockets were not humiliated. The message here is for you Ime. Your offense simply isn’t good enough for the modern NBA. That’s not Jalen Green’s fault, because even a very good Jalen would have changed nothing tonight. It’s the whole offense. It’s not good enough for the modern NBA, and no amount of hard faces, and trying harder, will change that. I want the Rockets to succeed, I want to see this work. I still don’t know exactly where the offense they run generates advantages. Source: https://www.thedreamshake.com/2024/2/28 ... ense-fails