Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Advanced stats matter, but this season of individual dominance should not be dismissed by formulas Nikola Jokic is going to win the 2024 Most Valuable Player award. He has an impressive statistical resume and his team has the best record in the vastly superior conference. This would not be a problem if he hadn’t also won the 2022 award when holding on to the sixth seed for dear life. Jokic won the 2022 award based on the strength of one of the most impressive individual seasons in recent memory. However, the Denver Nuggets finished 48 and 34 for sixth in the Western Conference. Jokic’s individual brilliance overshadowed still stunning performances from players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid who won more games. This season, Luka Doncic has been more individually brilliant than Jokic. It is tempting to equate their scoring because Jokic is obviously a very capable scorer, but their scoring output is not similar. The 48th leading scorer in the NBA, Jalen Williams, is as close to Jokic as Jokic is to Doncic in scoring. Doncic also averages slightly more(9.8 to 9.0) assists per game. Jokic has an edge in rebounds at 12.4 to 9.2 rebounds per game. The argument that so many pundits point to in pretending that Jokic’s case is so airtight are his advanced numbers. Jokic leads the NBA in player efficiency rating, box plus minus, defensive box plus minus and win shares among other things. Clearly, those catch all metrics mean Jokic is the best catch all player right? Wrong. Those metrics are flawed. Player efficiency rating (PER) works for a snap shot but has a lot of problems the further one gets into how it works. All of the box plus minus numbers simply point to how much better one’s team plays with him on the court than off. The problem, as is often the case with anything statistics related, is that box plus minus is subject to factors outside of a player’s control. Most notably, it relies almost entirely on usage. The Nuggets most used five-man lineup, its dominant starting lineup of Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jamal Murray has played a league leading 913 minutes. They have an awe inspiring net rating of +13.5 points per 100 possessions. That same lineup with Reggie Jackson in place of Murray has logged an additional 442 minutes with a still impressive net rating of +6 points per 100 possessions. Just those two lineups make up more than half of Jokic’s 2667 minutes this season. In fact, Jokic has only played a total of 417 minutes this season without at least two other starters on the court. This is the reason for Jokic’s mind boggling on/off and box plus-minus stats. Jokic is a breathtakingly great player and deserving of a ton of credit, but his spreadsheet fans miss the brilliance of his game. Look at it another way, Jokic’s last three seasons are fifth, sixth and seventh all time in defensive box plus minus. Does anyone believe he is the best defender in the history of basketball? Of course not, but that is what box plus minus tells one if they believe the higher number means that the season is inherently better. What box plus minus actually tells you, is that the Nuggets starting lineup both plays together more than just about any lineups in the modern era of staggering and is much better than its putrid bench. This is the same reason his plus minus is so high. Shockingly, the Nuggets’ starters are much better than their bench. Now compare that deployment with Doncic’s. Doncic has played 176 minutes with the Dallas Mavericks’ new starting lineup of himself, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. That lineup has an even more dominant +15.5 net rating per 100 possessions. Doncic has not played in another lineup combination with 100 minutes this year. Doncic has played 1507 of his 2624 minutes this year with one or fewer other starters on the court. That is 57.4 percent of his minutes with more bench players than starters. Jokic deserves all of the flowers. He is a truly dominant player and one of the players I most enjoy watching. But he won an MVP because his individual brilliance overshadowed a great player on a team with a better record. It is Doncic’s turn to do the same. Source: https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2024/4/12 ... ayer-award